油价低于75美元 欧佩克是否将被困于减产？

据油价网6月30日报道， 一位对冲基金经理告诉彭博社，由于油价在75美元以下徘徊，OPEC（石油输出国组织，欧佩克）可能发现自己被迫维持额外的减产，尤其是沙特。

这位来自投资公司Black Gold Investors LLC的对冲基金经理表示：“考虑到市场情绪的脆弱性，目前撤销减产可能会对油价造成过大的损害。”

本月早些时候，沙特自愿同意将7月的日产量目标再次削减100万桶，而且可能会延长。油价上涨了一些，但影响并不持久。如今，原油价格低于宣布减产前的水平，这让OPEC陷入了一个棘手的境地。

(资料图片仅供参考)

在OPEC会议前，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣萨勒曼再次警告交易商不要对油价进行投机性押注。他在2020年也曾发出类似的威胁。他当时说：“我会让那些在这个市场上投机的人遭受严重损失。”

事实上因为油价反弹，OPEC在今年4月宣布的减产举措曾让空头卖家受到了打击。然而，这次提前发出的警告很可能削弱了市场对沙特慷慨减产的反应。

目前，布伦特原油价格略低于每桶75美元，但国际货币基金组织最近的估计表明，沙特阿拉伯的原油财政平衡点超过80美元每桶。

沙特阿拉伯的额外减产将在7月生效，随着供应收紧，油价可能会上涨。毕竟，IEA预测今年下半年原油供应将超过需求200万桶/日。

胡耀东 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Is OPEC Locked Into Supply Cuts With Oil Below $75

As oil prices hover underneath the $75 for a Brent barrel, OPEC has likely found itself stuck with the extra supply cuts it took on—mainly Saudi Arabia—a hedge fund manager told Bloomberg on Friday.

“It would be too damaging to prices to remove it at this time, given the fragility of sentiment,” hedge fund manager of Black Gold Investors LLC said.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia voluntarily agreed to downsize its production targets by another 1 million barrels per day for the month of July—although it could be extended. Oil prices reacted by jumping up, but the effects were not long-lasting. Today, crude oil prices are lower than they were prior to the announced cut, putting OPEC in a tricky position.

In the runup to the OPEC meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders once again against taking a speculative bet against oil. He made similar threats back in 2020. “I’m going to make sure whoever gambles on this market will be ouching like hell,” he said at the time.

Indeed, OPEC’s cuts they announced back in April hurt short sellers when prices rallied. This time, however, the warning ahead of time likely muted the response to Saudi Arabia’s generous production cut.

Brent prices are just a hair under $75 per barrel today, but recent estimations from the International Monetary Fund suggest that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven for crude oil is more than $80 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia’s extra cuts go into effect in July, and prices could tick up as supply tightens. After all, the IEA has predicted that crude oil supply will exceed demand by 2 million bpd in the second half of this year.